Disclaimer

I will not be responsible for any material that is found on this site or at the end of links that I may post on this blog site. Mistakes may happen from time to time. URLS and domains may change hands. If you need financial advice or someone to hold your hand while you make the trade, please find another site.

Because the information on this blog are based on my personal opinion and gosh I am so fucking opinionated, it should NOT be considered professional financial investment advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional, preferably both and in that order. My thoughts and opinions will also change from time to time as I learn and accumulate more knowledge,or my meds wear out, or my post coital euphoria passes.

Feel free to comment on my ideas or ask questions in the comments section for the blog entries. Please remember that this is a blog, and you do not need to agree with everything or anything I write (except I am very needy when it comes to my looks...so you have to say nice things). I reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason (abusive, profane, rude, etc.) so please keep the comments polite, unless you are criticising Gold Bugs...in which case go wild....doggie style.

This site is also dedicated to preventing small traders from having their accounts go supernova by listening to Gary Savage. To read more about him, please browse through the posts and also see http://smartmoneytrackerpremium-exposed.com/


Thursday, December 29, 2016

Gary Savage/Toby Connor please stop deceiving your subscribers



We were treated to another priceless quote from the grandmaster recently.


Seriously? AGAIN?

After all his subscribers have lost an average of 75%? Is there no recognition of the fact that you are leveraging your climbing ass and that of your subscribers, out? Is there no recognition of the fact that you have blown up multiple trading portfolios to ZERO and you did another reset in February?

 

Hey Jackass do you want to know which 3X Equity related Bull shares were up more than 50% from the low in January/February?


ALL OF THEM!
And here is the best part. EVERY ONE of them has significantly done better than 50%. with the average being over 100%.

























In fact NUGT is up over 125% since the Jan low. So you have underperformed that by a whopping 75%. So what exactly are you charging people money for? Oh I know, I know....so they can all retire comfortably as millionaires and sell $200 a year subscriptions. Because that is what millionaires do.







Tuesday, December 27, 2016

January 2017

Based on my indicators, many revealed like charlatan lies, and some held secret like the stolen panties of an ex-lover, I think January will bring some big TLT strength, some big USD/JPY weakness.

GDX should visit $22.50 at least. I am long GDX, Long Silver Futures and Short DUST and Short DUST call options (half of which expire on this friday with a $67 strike, so are up big).


Goldman Sachs, I think will get kicked in the Sacs. Currently I am short from $240.25 for 3% of equity.

Nothing found on this blog, including the links, posts and comments should be construed as financial advice. 

If you are stupid enough to blindly follow someone on the internet without doing your own due diligence, and without taking responsibilities for your own actions, you deserve what will ultimately come to you/your portfolio.


Thursday, December 22, 2016

Dec 22, 2016

Gold market continues to frustrate, but TLT seems to be looking better.
Year-End Tax loss selling can mess with a lot of stuff so a better eval can only be done in the new year.

Monday, December 19, 2016

Comex will default/Shanghai will cause Comex to default Part 1





There is a slight premium on the Shanghai exchange for both Gold and Silver. It exists. However as a % of the price it has been between just 1-4% and has rarely gone outside those bands.  
Compare the bid and ask quotes today from Brent and West Texas Crude oils. A nice 5.5% spread.



Yet not a single one of these nutjobs is calling for all the crude in the world to move UK and cause a Nymex default. Here is the funny part, from 2001-2009 (maybe even before that, I was not following the markets back then), WTI (USOIL) actually traded at a premium to Brent and funnily enough Brent deliveries never defaulted.

But surely the overwhelming Shanghai buying is unique. It will create a default soon, will it not?
This idea about the Shanghai exchange creating a default has been one of the biggest godsends to the writers who lure you into buying a subscription. I am going to look at this over a few posts.
When did we first hear of this Shanghai crap?

That retard at Zerohedge talking about the physical shortage causing a default.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-18/physical-gold-shortage-goes-mainstream
"there may not be enough gold to go around if everyone with a futures contract insists on taking delivery of physical bullion."

Followed by the really ominous, 

"That won't end well..."

That was used by multiple articles for fear-mongering with the added catalyst being the Shanghai exchange causing defaults.

 Then Greg Hunter ran with
http://usawatchdog.com/manipulation-of-gold-and-silver-definitely-ends-this-year-harvey-organ/

""Organ says when China and Russia disclose the true amount of gold they hold, there will be a price spike never before seen in the history of the world.  Organ says, “You will see that you will go to sleep at night, and you will wake up the next morning and see gold bidding at $3,000 per ounce, and there will be no offer, and it will rise by $500 a day.  It will come in 2014.  They are running out, they don’t have it.”"
  
Ok, I really cannot make more fun of a guy with name like Organ, but if listened to him you got your ass handed to you. 
  
Jim Willie, who also has a name which makes it harder to make more fun of him, ran with this in November 2014 where he calls for the price to go to $7,000 Oz and then to $18,000 Oz. He was so passionate about it, he made an hour long interview video on it.
https://endtimesand2019.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/jim-willie-says-gold-is-going-to-7000oz-then-18000oz/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fmWqqEpFjk

First $7,000 Oz and then to $18,000 Oz. Least you fucking morons think it is going first to $18,000 and then to $7,000. 
The reason
"Of course, the paper price of gold (and silver) cannot go on forever, because Asian interests loaded with dollars are more than happy to trade them for underpriced gold and silver.  So long as there are real vaults in the West to empty of real gold and silver, Asia will buy it cheap, every month, and not rock the boat while they are benefitting."


Followed a couple of months later by 
http://www.silverdoctors.com/gold/gold-news/jim-willie-shanghai-shock-to-shatter-the-gold-market/
“The manipulation is finite, and it is coming to an end.
When the Shanghai shock comes, ALL THE PAPER GOLD STRUCTURES WILL FALL, all the FOREX derivatives will collapse, & all the control rooms will go into panic mode”.

So almost 3 years later, these people sing the same tune every day and still no default. Why?

Only Premium subscribers can find out the answer to that. Subscribe now for $25 a month and get all the inside scoop.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Is gold in a bull market?

My thoughts:
Yes.
An undercut of the $1,045 low with GDX diverging and not breaking its early 2016 low would be a fantastic tell, although there are many other permutations as well.

And yeah, watch for "Smart money" to accumulate 3X leveraged funds which decay annually at the rate of at least 40% if the market stays flat. Because that is what the "smart money" which has a hard time making 15% a year, every year, does. It gives itself a good 40% headwind.

Friday, December 16, 2016

Dec 16 2016

SPY just went ex-divi...hence the price drop. I had forgotten about that.
Gold and Silver look like they are not able to generate any upside in the short term.
I think we are setting up an important top for the USD as yields move higher across the world and compete with the US bonds market better. 

The system seems as stressed as usual.  But as I previously joked on this blog, for gold bugs, we are always one pubic hair away from calamity.  I will have more on the east-west arbitrage at some point but my research into it has not yielded much as yet.  

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

The end is near!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ok. First off. Big fuck up chasing GDX at $20.60 when I had stayed away from the sector since August and every bone in my body, including my penis when I see Abigail Spencer, believed that it would not bottom until $20 was broken. 
I still stuck my head out and now I am down 3% on a 15% position in 2 hours. I have taken another 1% portfolio hit on USD/JPY and TLT calls might cost be another 1%.
All in all I should have done something more productive with my time.

My sense though is that we are very close to the bottom. This rate of change in the long bond has completely frozen mortgage/new home buying activity and the upcoming reports will reflect that. 

The small specs and large specs are having a field day at the expense of the commercials and this has probably gotten even more extreme as of today (report shown from December 6th).
Also TLT is currently 12% below its 200 day moving average, a all time record.
Previous occasion that came close was mid 2013 from where TLT went sideways for a few months formed a double bottom in December 2013 and then rallied for whole of 2014.



The 14 week ROC is now at the lowest level since 2009,which was after the crisis and TLT was mean reverting from very high levels. Even that level created a 15% rally over the next 5 months.

Let's see what tomorrow brings. 


Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Fed Meeting

I do not share my charts in general as that reveals a bit too much of my trading method.
However, I will share that I see the 116 area on the USD/YEN as an area of substantial resistance and if we get a spike into that post Fed, I will be shorting USD/YEN.

What I expect from the meeting.

A hike like everyone else. The Fed will have to walk a fine line between preparing the markets for future hikes and not spooking the markets. No, not the stock market, the bond market. They will have cascading margin calls if bonds have another 30 day drop like the one they just experienced. Over time it is a different story. 

I will be adding to TLT calls tomorrow, likely Feb expiration. My current TLT 122's are 50% underwater. I expect the bond market to be the major beneficiary of the Fed meeting. Good Luck, Godspeed and Good Trading. 

Monday, December 12, 2016

Testing Disqus

Disqus seems to be a good solution to get newer comments on top, and for moderation.
But I have never used it......so it will, like blogging, be a learning curve.

Clearly my comments about Avi did not go down well with market watcher.....but in my defense....I am highly opinionated as I have disclosed.

Update
In an unusual twist....I saw the email below in the morning. Considering it was sent 6 hours ago, about an hour after my spate with market watcher make me wonder what actually happened. Did Market watcher contact Avi? Is Avi....Market Watcher? Are they lovers who were snuggling at that exact moment the argument started? No clue....but anyone calling out Gary on his bullshit publicly, and Avi actually used Gary's charts, gets tons of brownie points. "Btw – this is my latest example of calling out Gary’s bullish with facts and logic. http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1481296080.php Avi Gilburt, Esq. www.elliottwavetrader.net"

Saturday, December 10, 2016

What is QE? (Yellen don't hurt me, don't hurt me...no more)

I thought I would do this is a question and answer format, rather than a regular post style.

1) What is quantitative easing?
Purchase of long term bonds by central banks to lower interest rates.

2) Is it "money printing"?
If all central banks at some point reverse it, the net impact would be zero. So in that sense it is not "money printing."

3) So it could be "money printing"?
It could. If central banks are never able to reverse it. 

4) Ah-ha! So Gold will go up because of the money printing? 
It may. The amount of QE is still pretty small.

5) What! Are you nuts? Have you seen this chart?

 Yes and Yes. Have you seen this chart?

6) Not sure I get what you are saying. Can you be a bit more clear?

Sure. Total documented wealth is around 400 Trillion, but that misses a lot of shit. There are plenty of government owned assets and tons of assets not counted in this set. The total wealth of the people of earth could be in the range of 700 Trillion to 1.2 Quadrillion. 
Total QE is 18 trillion. You can shag that number till doomsday and if it gets a nice velocity and comes blazing out...it still has a lot of assets to choose from. With a multiplier of 1, it would increase the prices of all assets by 5%. With a multiplier of 20 it might double all asset prices. Yeah but your jerk-off dream of Gold $10,000 or $100,000 will not happen because of QE. 

7) But QE appears so large. Why does everyone get overwhelmed with this 4.5 Trillion on the Fed balance sheet? 
Because they compare to what it used to be and assume it is bad. Because they compare to total outstanding Government debt and assume it is bad. Nobody looks at all assets available for this money to chase.


8) So no inflation?
I did not say that. We will likely get a  good inflationary cycle soon.Full employment, trade protectionist policies and just the cyclical nature of inflation, will make it so. QE and low interest rates will likely make it worse. 

9) So would you buy Gold to protect yourself against this inflation?
No. REITS would be much better, Platinium is a wonderful choice as well. Why would I play 25% premium for an item like Gold vs Platinum when annually we mine 10X as much Gold vs Platinum, above ground we have 1 Billion ounces of Gold vs almost none for Platinum and Platinum has historically got me more tail than Gold. Perhaps even some Silver. But no Gold for me. This does not apply to trading positions. 

10) Do you think Central banks are suppressing the price of Gold?
Look at the chart below and draw your own conclusions. I am late for a scheduled 69.









Friday, December 9, 2016

Portfolio Update

Covered 1/4 more TECK at 23.20.
Shorted at 26.44.


Long term positions on oil stocks looking good this morning.
Gold sector looks like it is still struggling. I am still not interested on the long side.




Bonus: A lot of traders are going to be wondering how they could have been so stupid, according to Gary. Very unlike how they feel now for missing the last two months of bull.










Thursday, December 8, 2016

Competetive revaluation

Remember when every central bank was cutting interest rates and while currencies stayed flat against each other, Gold rose? I remember that being labelled as competitive devaluation. 
I think the opposite might happen for some time, at least until real rates fall. 

For real rates to fall, inflation must rise faster than nominal rates.
For inflation to rise, energy costs, which are a very big driver of inflation, must rise.
Hence Gold cannot go up, unless oil rises substantially.

See what I did there? 

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Portfolio Update

Covered short sold GDX puts.
Had sold at 61 cents, covered at 16 cents. +45 cents or about 2.5% risked capital
Covered Short sold SLW puts
Sold at 81 cents, covered at 17 cents+ 64 cents or about 3% of risked capital.
No long positions on PM sector, direct or indirect any more.

Monday, December 5, 2016

The Archduke of Gold Bugs

Michael Pento is an interesting one. Just like most Gold Bugs....he is convinced that any given moment we are one pubic hair away from Armageddon. And we are talking thin, wispy, Caucasian pubic hair, not Asian or African-American.   But he is just a bit more mainstream and gets more interviews on CNBC and airtime on more grounded networks, so does more damage with his "views". In his latest interview he reaches two dramatic conclusions.

1) We will have a crash in global economic/stock market crash 2017
2) Helicopter money will start soon after. 

Where have we heard "crash" predictions from this man before?

1)      Uh 2011... titled Train wheels off...Crash Helmets on.

2)      In 2012  with a video titled "Financial Collapse is inevitable."
  
3)      And in 2013 The bond market is headed for a meltdown, and that collapse may bring down the governments of Japan, Europe and the United States, says Michael Pento, president of Pento Portfolio Strategies.

4)      And in 2014..."Signs of next stock market crash is rapidly approaching"...yeah I noticed the grammar too.

5)      And in 2015.."Today one of the greats (really?? Greats?) in the business warned King World News that the world will see a shocking crash in 2015.  He also warned this crash will bring with it enormous chaos and crisis as it engulfs the entire planet. Michael Pento:  Investors need to be strategically allocated.  Their portfolios have to be prepared for volatility like we’ve never seen before because government manipulations have caused the market to repeatedly lose half of its value.  That’s what happened in the year 2000.  That’s what happened in the year 2008.  And we are due for just such another crash


Don’t know about you guys but I stocked up on the canned food.  I mean what are the chances this guy is a clueless moron who says the same thing over and over again?"




Oil going to $70..... in 12 months

I have been an oil bull for some time. Those who saw my posts at Dumbmoneytracker would know that. I am also a bull on the Oil Stocks/Gold stocks  and Oil to Gold ratio over the next 12 months.


This morning we saw the usual asstalking from zerohedge, documenting how OPEC production hit a high.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-05/opec-oil-production-hits-new-all-time-high-brent-surges-16-month-high


For the past 3 months ZH ran multiple articles showing how oil was going to breakdown like it did in 2015....when that failed they throw this nonsense.
ZH is about 2 clicks away from the ludicrous Gold bugs..so I lump them in the same category.


Here is the real oil situation.
1) Current Demand is 300,000 barrels lower than supply. Estimates have it even higher than supply in some cases.
2) Expected demand increase is 1.0-1.2 Million barrels per day next year.
3) OPEC plus NON-OPEC have agreed to cut around 1.5 Million barrels a day of supply.
4) Mega Projects coming online fall off a cliff in the 2018-2020 time frame.


By December 2017 I expect the market to be in a 2 Million Barrel plus deficit. At the minimum we will see $70.
\Will OPEC Cut? I think they will . The talk has been about the shale oil in US but the real hit to supply has been the Mega Projects and those have been gutted left, right and center.
Stay long the oil bull. Don't get cute and don't try and short this. It will rip your balls off.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Portfolio Update

Current trading positions
Long EUR/USD from 1.058. Sold Half at 1.0688.
Short TCK (half covered at 24.41 or so) from 26.44
Short GDX Dec 20 Puts from 65 cents (Indirect Longs on GDX)
Short SLW Dec 18 puts from 81 cents (Indirect Longs on GDX)
Long TLT Jan 122 calls $1.40




The prices may be off at times by a couple of cents as I do this from recollection. Occasionally, my mind will have added the commission, and sometimes I forget about it. This is not an intention to deceive and in most cases the amount will be immaterial. But if I miss something big (unlikely), please bring it to my attention. I will try and update as close to real time as possible but again that may not always be feasible, so don't rely on that. 

Coming week. 
I think it will be a decent week for Euro/USD (up).

December should be moderately favourable for Gold/Gold stocks. Remember, GDX is still up quite a lot for the year, so people will try and defer selling till January where feasible to minimize taxes. This will be a mild tailwind. 

I am looking for $23-$24 on GDX. But as long as it stays over $20 till December expiration (December 16th), I make 3% on risked capital and about 4% on SLW as long as it stays above 18. This may seem like a small amount but 3.5% in half a month is 84% annualized. I take my small victories and add them up. I take what I consider to be low risk trades where my chances of winning are high. 

These are my positions, suitable for me. Not recommendations for anyone. 
If you need financial advice see a financial advisor. 
If you have money to blow up, subscribe to Gary. 
If you are in a hurry to blow it up, go for the Quest Portfolio. 



Saturday, December 3, 2016

Gary Savage/Toby Connor vs the Duck

I just visited Gary/Toby's blog and he called me an "Internet Troll". Well, I thought I would use the opportunity to show Gary's subscribers exactly how this troll has been teaching Gary a thing or two about trading.
Not necessarily in order here are a few.

 1) The first debate


Gary’s video summary: Sharp drop in is the USD. Gold going from $1,350 to $1,450-$1,500
My Comment


What actually happened?
Gold down. Never came close to those numbers Gary was talking about. Oil Up. Gold oil ratio down.

Duck 1 Gary 0

2) The second debate.




What actually happened?
Blood bath in Gold stocks.
Blood bath in Yen.

Duck 2 Gary 0

3) In response to Gary's video that Gold would go up a lot



What happened? We came awfully close to $1,150 already although Gary's blog will show I turned bullish at $1,166 for the short term.

Duck 3 Gary 0.

4) The yen was apparently going to be the strongest against the the USD.


As per my comments above, and others around the same time, I expected the Yen to get decimated.

Duck 4 Gary 0.

5) Where is GDX heading?


Further comment in October


Gary Mining stocks have completed week 1 of a new intermediate degree cycle. They are now expected to rally for 14-18 weeks. This video discusses the price projections for GDX, GDXJ and JNUG for the upcoming advance.


 We got $20.32 ...pretty close to the 1 handle on GDX ($19.99), whereas Gary called for $31.

Duck 5 Gary 0.



Now what is the point of all this? If a slightly better than average trader like myself (I'd give myself 6.5 maybe a 7 on 10) can completely destroy this idiot and he calls that trader a Troll, what does it say about him?

He has still not sent me money for the Burritos :(


And to end we will leave it with subscriber's comment.

Just a 70% loss, nothing to write home about. Now that dodo will point out that he kept a stop at $1,275, which he did not because you can see from the subscribers he talked from both sides of his mouth there......but even if he did....it was an approx 50% loss in JNUG.

So Gary/Toby,

Ask not for whom the duck trolls
It trolls for thee. 

Hope you enjoy the Ernest Hemingway reference...I worked hard on that

Friday, December 2, 2016

What is going to happen on this site

1) The original mission to educate gold bugs is still on going.


2) I will publish my daily trades, if I feel like it.


3) The site will become restricted and require password access at some point.

My problem with Gary Savage/Toby Connor

I have no issues with people getting it wrong.
It is with getting it wrong, and pretending you are the messiah.
It is getting it wrong and saying manipulation killed your trade.
It is getting it wrong and telling people I got it right.
It is getting it right once, after calling 50 bottoms in the last 5 years and saying you are the best.
It is calling for S & P 500 to go to 500, 500 times than acting like you have been bullish all your life.
It is telling people to put 20-50% of their money in metals which comprise of 3X leveraged fund, essentially creating a delta on 60-150% of their money and then strutting around because he made 53% by taking 3X leverage which frankly any dodo would get right once in a while on 3X fund.
It is parading indicators like NYAD which he does not even understand come from 52% of the wrong indicators.




Yeah I knew he would delete my comments, specially after I mentioned his alternate ID.

Thursday, December 1, 2016

Where are the REIT Bugs?

Gold is a separate asset class. It gets its own special place. Although traditionally known as an inflation protection asset, Gold Bugs claim it will protect you from inflation, deflation (because it is real money apparently), hyperinflation and most STDs.
But it has done rather poorly comparing to another asset class, which protects against inflation rather well, Equity REITS.
Let's see Total Returns for the NAREIT index vs Gold.
Since 1972.

Annual Compounded from 1972 11.7% for Equity REITS vs 7.5% for Gold.

Does not seem like a big difference. That is only because you don't know the value of compounding!


Holy Crap! That almost looks like REITS have decimated Gold.
But wait we have to make one small adjustment.
Stocks were freely traded in 1950's to 1970's whereas Gold had been held fixed to $35 for over 3 decades. In fact Gold went from $35-$200 in the first 5 years it was removed off the fixed price. This was catch up. Just like when an artificial peg is removed and the currency falls/appreciates rapidly.

So total return over 1975-2016 would remove this catch up period. Remember Gold went up 6 fold during 1970-1975 where Real interest rates were 1-2% below inflation. That kind of appreciation would never happen outside a catch up zone.


So my question is, Where the Fuck are the REIT Bugs? Why is there no one screaming that NAREIT will go up 4000% in the next 5 years? Where are the lunatics saying REITS are being pressured/manipulated by the central banks? Where is REIT-EAGLE.COM? Surely some fringe people must have developed who have gone bonkers with the love of this asset class. Where are they??!!
Specially today when REITS are a global asset class and take away country specific risk, surely someone must feel so passionately about them?