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Because the information on this blog are based on my personal opinion and gosh I am so fucking opinionated, it should NOT be considered professional financial investment advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional, preferably both and in that order. My thoughts and opinions will also change from time to time as I learn and accumulate more knowledge,or my meds wear out, or my post coital euphoria passes.

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Sunday, January 8, 2017

Jan 9, 2017

Just was made aware of this new analysis by Avi Gilburt.
It appears that Gary Savage is attracting all the wrong sort of attention. Nobody seems to believe how he generates 75% returns overnight, specially in the face of repeated closings and reopenings of his "model portfolio". 
The whole article is worth reading multiple times, especially if you have been at the end of a Savage Burn.
Some key themes.

  "For this reason, you must realize that these funds (3X funds) are NOT INVESTMENT VEHICLES, but are only trading vehicles.  Anyone suggesting you use one of these vehicles as an investment vehicle is to be viewed as dangerous and lacking in any understanding of the vehicle or the market itself." 
“First, one should NEVER buy a 3X ETF as an investment, as it is a trading vehicle and not a buy-and-hold vehicle. “

"Consider that even the most amazing analyst that is right 70% of the time can blow up your account during the 30% of the time they are wrong." 

Gary is right about 30% of the time and that is me being very generous. Hence he can do immeasurable amount of damage. 

 "So, if an analyst tells you to simply buy at any point and a “bull market will correct any timing mistakes,” you should run the other way.  This means that this analyst has no risk management in place, is unable to identify trend changes, and is simply guessing and “hoping” the market will turn again in his favor. " 

I personally have never been a proponent of EW theory and that will likely not change (unless my pessimism on it is in its final hyperbolic 5th wave top), but Avi’s trading system stays away from making an “investment” 3X ETFs, has a high level of discipline and always uses stops. So it does inject a level of discipline in traders who follow him and that is 90% of the reason most traders are successful or failures.

Also, I did get into a pissing match when someone accused me of stealing his work. I let my ego get the better of me on that and said a few things I should not have. So I apologize to Avi on that front. I might add that that the said "pissing match" took place before I knew that Avi looked like a much more handsome and dapper version of the “The Rock”.  I mean why would I pick a fight with this guy?

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