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Thursday, January 12, 2017

Oh Gary....Why?

So in the face of more subscriber revolt, Gary published this awesome chart.

Idiots? Gary...Glass houses...Stones...no bell ringing?

Regardless, on the face of this it does appear that 3X funds do very well during a bull market. Of course, here is the rub, 
You must identify the exact bottom and the underlying must not be excessively volatile........something Mr. Savage Gary himself idiotically contradicts for JNUG. A single 33% decline would wipe out JNUG (say if India bans Gold Imports). Even if GDXJ recovered the next day....the daily contracts which account for bulk of the fund would go to zero. 

Ignoring that little tidbit and focusing on the first item....Identifying an exact bottom.... why is this important?
Let’s look at the same chart just set back 4 months.
If you had been 4 months early…Just 4 months....you would be up about 8% instead of 1,500%.

And the underlying would be about 135% (dividends reinvested). 

For a total underperformance of over 400% versus target.  

How early has Gary been?
He has called multiple bottoms over the last 5 years but he first showed NUGT in December 2013.

"Big money" not to be confused with "Smartmoney" was "anticipating an impending bottom"
How did that work out? Oh not too bad...just a 90% loss.

Even more fun was what Gary said beyond that....

Fuck "Who wants to be Millionaire?" 

Gary went straight for the "B" word. Gary I think the "B" word you were looking for was "BANKRUPT". 

Found another priceless NUGGET.

Shows GARY was really, really, really, really, really early.

"By the fall of 2014 I expect we will see gold somewhere between $7,000 and $20,000 an ounce."

So when he says JNUG will go to $1,000...please ask him why Gold is not yet at $7,000.

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