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Thursday, January 19, 2017

What happened to the Gary Savage Ship?

Thanks to the relentless assault by the SMT Exposed site, this blog and even Avi Gilburt, the Borg (Gary Savage) ship is taking some damage.

Thank you all for your participation. 

The complacency and sentiment indicators continue to stay in extreme. If we do not have a 1% decline today it will be 67 trading days without one, the longest in the bull market since 2009. But the underlying economy looks quite strong. A couple of years back you can check the many sites including zerohedge which predicted that the Fed would not be able to raise rates and such a high US dollar would destroy the US economy. The economy has held up quite well in the face of a higher USD (which I think has peaked as I mentioned last week) and the falling dollar should be a nice tailwind to profits.

Trading Positions:
50% Long Equity TLT

3% Long Equity Various Calls Feb TLT

3% Short Equity GS

Long GS $220-$210 Put spread for Feb (10X), financed by selling $240 calls for Feb expiration (1X)

3% Short Equity FAS

10% Short Equity GLD: 10% Long Equity PPLT

About 6% combined short GDX $23.50 Jan 27th calls at 66 cents and Pan America Silver at $18.93

5% Short Equity SPX

1% Short Equity NUGT Jan 20 $10 calls. 

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