Disclaimer

I will not be responsible for any material that is found on this site or at the end of links that I may post on this blog site. Mistakes may happen from time to time. URLS and domains may change hands. If you need financial advice or someone to hold your hand while you make the trade, please find another site.

Because the information on this blog are based on my personal opinion and gosh I am so fucking opinionated, it should NOT be considered professional financial investment advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional, preferably both and in that order. My thoughts and opinions will also change from time to time as I learn and accumulate more knowledge,or my meds wear out, or my post coital euphoria passes.

Feel free to comment on my ideas or ask questions in the comments section for the blog entries. Please remember that this is a blog, and you do not need to agree with everything or anything I write (except I am very needy when it comes to my looks...so you have to say nice things). I reserve the right to delete any comment for any reason (abusive, profane, rude, etc.) so please keep the comments polite, unless you are criticising Gold Bugs...in which case go wild....doggie style.

This site is also dedicated to preventing small traders from having their accounts go supernova by listening to Gary Savage. To read more about him, please browse through the posts and also see http://smartmoneytrackerpremium-exposed.com/


Thursday, March 30, 2017

Gary probably failed grade 6...Multiple times.Part 2.

Part 1 which was posted on January 9th 2017, can be read here.
The crux of the argument here is that Gary probably has a sub-80 IQ to say such crap.


The specifics are that highly volatile ETFs are very dangerous for Buy and Hold investors. I have explained in part 1 that Gary’s $500-$1,000 target are so out of whack with reality that subscribing to Gary for his wisdom is about as useful as volunteering for 32 optional root canals.



Let’s revisit what happened since Part 1. 

GDXJ down 0.6% since Jan 9th.
Implied Change in JNUG Negative 1.8%.

Actual change in JNUG since Jan 9th. NEGATIVE 20.70%.

In 3 months JNUG has underperformed its “expected” (and I use the word expected loosely as anyone observing these would not expect anything like this) benchmark by 19% in 3 months or at annualized rate of over 70%.

Sounds far-fetched? One-off? Let’s look another new rolling 12 month return.
GDXJ up 38% in the last 12 months.

Implied 3X move in JNUG would be UP 114%.


Actual change in JNUG. NEGATIVE 10%.
Underperformance of 120% compared to “expected”.




True Gary. None of us will make any of those gains because they will not exist.
But I and others will continue to rub this in your face till JNUG goes to my target of $0 in the next 5 years.  

Monday, March 27, 2017

Gold Bugs are idiots because they listen to people like Egon von Greyerz

High up on the dumbasses that people cite when they explain how the system is going to collapse, is this numbnut.

Egon von Greyerz.


Here is the screenshot from King World News latest interview.





 Sounds Legit. But we have been teetering for some time. 





Ok about a couple of years.


Ok seriously? We have been on the edge for so long? That must take some serious balance. 



 This is some slow motion train wreck.







Same guy above, though you cannot see his name. So this is a long incubation period????


You have got to be shitting me.






GARY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I found your long lost twin!!!!!!!!!!!
He is in in Switzerland!!!!!!!!!!




Sunday, March 26, 2017

The 4 strongest arguments for a big bear market (and why all are wrong) Part 1

Valuation by Shiller PE:
This is one of the strongest arguments for a bear market. The CAPE or Shiller P/E ratio which calculates the  P/E ratio by taking the inflation adjusted earnings over the last decade, is currently around 30 (this is an older chart but it shows fantastic info so I used it).  Periods when CAPE was over 22 are shaded. What it does show is that in general; stocks have a hard time making much progress when CAPE is that high.


Periods of elevated CAPE are from
1986 to 1910
1929-1950
1968 to 1982
and 1996 to virtually all the way to today with a brief interlude in between.
Also this chart is the total return index as in the value of investment with dividends reinvested. This shows that in spite of dividends reinvested, the total return is definitely weaker in those periods.

But anyone using CAPE alone is missing the big picture. As the second chart shows, stocks have returned on average 1% after inflation even during elevated CAPE. 


But the range is astronomical. If you expect 4% inflation average over the next 10 years, your total nominal returns on stock could be a -10% to 120%. You could certainly lock in a guaranteed 27% in a 10 year bond for part of the portfolio and current yield jump certainly makes bonds a lot more appealing than they were before.
By itself CAPE/Shiller P/E suggest that the markets will likely not make large inflation adjusted headway in the years to come. But the range is so huge that it is next to useless as a forecasting tool and certainly no guarantee that the bull market is ending.

Stocks will still beat bonds (most likely) if we have moderate to high inflation.
Shiller P/E is the reason though that I am heavily underweight US in my portfolio and have all my long term holdings in REITS and Energy. Both sectors are heavily out of favour and many REITS where I have the lion’s share of the portfolio are trading at single digit multiples.  


To be continued....

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

March 22, 2017-Gary Savage is still an idiot

Just felt like adding that to the title, although the post has nothing to do with it.
Some blasts from the past all from KING WORLD NEWS..please note the dates.  


1) I swear I thought it was an advertisement for Tylenol. 

"Whatever time zone you are in.....for fast rapid acting relief...Trust Tylenol"





2) Not sure about soar but that definitely got a rise out of me. 
John Ing is hardly a legend...in fact the only word i can attribute to him right now is Boob. 






3) Did we witness...hey wait a second...



I know this guy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!@@@@@@@@@



Saturday, March 18, 2017

Weekend Wrap By BGINVESTOR: Part Trois

SIdebar: After months of ignoring the truths being brought to light by this blog, SMT-Exposed and even Avi Gilburt, Mr. Gary Savage decided to ask us to give him credit for his winning trades. That is the equivalent of a doctor that kills a family member due to malpractice, reminding you that months back he administered a Flu shot to said family member. 

Gary, you are reckless, dangerous, arrogant and deceitful. You want me to stop you panzy? Ass hurting too badly?  Fine.
2)    Put it up on your premium and free blog for 2 weeks
3)   Annotate it clearly to explain how and when you sent the message to sell JNUG, rather than keep adding.  Explain how you closed trades on the weekend, where the losses went. 

4)    If your explanations are logical and truthful, I will stop completely. 



Weekend wrap!   Bginvestor

What can I say, so much entertainment this week!   Why go to the movies, when you can see “Gary the gold Guru” trying to convince the gold bugs to be herded into the equity markets! 

UPRO – Daily
Admittedly, I think Gary mentioned that he was trying to catch the top of the daily cycle.  But, cycle analysis suggests that the end of this daily cycle starts into the intermediate cycle low.   I think he’s hoping the price will hit the moon first.  I don’t know, we shall see!

$VIX – daily
The VIX shows just how crazy the SM markets are right now.  Price has been in the channel for months.  I’ll bet the complacency ends sooner than later.                  DUCK: The spike should be shorted by VXX. Look at 1990’s VIX stayed low for very long periods of time.



DIA – daily
I’m going to be patient and wait for a decent correction.  This does not scream low risk right now, you know what I mean?  Besides, most of the SM sectors are clearly over bought and profits should be taken before they are taken from you.


VNQ – daily
One exception is REITS; they got pounded for a few weeks and one of the few sectors that are over sold..   VNQ bounced off a well-defined support at FOMC..
I’m already in baby!
DUCK: Everyone here knows how I feel about REITS. 



CHN – daily
This is just a reminder that there are ETFs other than the metal sector that kick ass!
DUCK: China leads the commodity markets quite often. 


ULE – daily
I missed several opportunities this week.  This is one of them.   I noticed that bullish pattern early on, but didn’t pull the trigger. 
The downward trend has been broken.  I repeat, the down ward trend line has been broken.  ;)
DUCK: 2 ECB members talked about rate hikes. Just a reminder, in 2008, USD and EURO interest rates were about the same and the Euro was at 1.60. I think we will hit 1.20 easy this year. 

$USDJPY – daily
We’ll see if there’s enough steam to push through supports next week..



GDXJ – daily
Obviously, there was going to be a breakout!   I told you. Mission accomplished.  ;)




GDXJ – daily
Oh boy, I hope price hits that support line.   I have the 3X gun off of safety and ready to pull the trigger.
I bought in low like a lot of you, but could not resist capturing the profits from the vertical move.  So far, it worked out very well.   I’m up over 15% in my account just for this week alone.
By the way, Mark showed me a chart that suggests there’s no way price is going to get down there!   And he may be right. 
So, if you want to go long, I suggest scaling in, seriously.

GS – daily
Goldman got kicked in the sac today!  Is this an early sign of market weakness?   hmmmm
DUCK: I am short this one with av average price $248.50 adjusted for puts and calls sold. I round tripped this in spectacular style as it fell right after I went short, but i have still not covered. If TLT explodes higher GS will definitely meet its 200 moving average which is more than $50 lower. 


UGAZ – daily
Today’s trade was going long..  I missed it!
I find it interesting that the support line got tagged like 7 times!   I plan to use that to my advantage.



LABU – daily
Very interesting chart!
There was $$ to be made in biotech this week.


NUGT -  daily
Damn, that does look bullish! Let’s see what happens next week.


That’s it for me!   Hope some of the charts were somewhat interesting..  Let’s keep up the discussions next week.  Cheers!

Thursday, March 16, 2017

Gary the little lamb

Gary Savage, of the Smart Money Tracker blog, with his astounding stupidity has made me laugh so hard that I feel like a have pulled at least 4 muscles. What amazes me more is that people are still subscribing to him.
Anyway, my only comment about the market:
A freak-out if it happens, should be bought. Most likely it will be (if it happens) over 1st Quarter GDP.
And here is why.  
Hat Tip to Jeroen Blokland.



And Maxdog, Spanky is not welcome here. Neither is any other Permabear/Doomer/Gold Bug. Spanky fit all 3 (usually people are all 3, although those idiots at THEAUTOMATICEARTH.COM fit only the first 2). 

Please do not invite him…yeah it is like the vampire principle. 

Finally since we do not just inform...we entertain.....

Thanks to LSPOONER for superb contribution and helping me past sticking points.

GOLDBUGSPRAY PRESENTS!!!!!!
  
                                                    Gary the little lamb 



A poem by DUCKWHOROCKS & LSPOONER 

                                          

Gary was a little lamb,
Who was fleeced white as snow.
he got chased out of metals,
so he bought UPRO...
The Gold bull will make us rich he said
The Fed has overplayed their hand

But it is 7 years later
and a few dollars less.
Entering at the top
oh what a mess!

He keeps using his cycles,
They were not supposed to fail,
But the only bottoms he is catching
Belong to strippers at Chippendales!

Sunday, March 12, 2017

Who is Gary Savage/Toby Connor?




Spot the 10 differences between Toby and Gary.



Sorry that was a trick question...there are none.



So, who the fuck is this guy? He even chose the same damn picture. Not that I would recommend it, as an art of deception but he could shave that beard off and move the piercing to his dick, so at least somebody might be fooled. 

Why do I care? Gary Savage/Toby Connor is a scam artist. I understand enough of the markets to know that he understands next to nothing. What he does know is how to sell. That soothing, glib voice telling you "I am a multi-millionaire....and you will always be the dumb money." Gently adding "Folks...this is nothing new....we are in a bull market" by which he is referring to the bull market in his subscriptions.  I care because he will destroy portfolios with his snake oil salesman charm and I am hoping to help spread the word. Those who followed my comments and trades on Gary's website between August and December, saw that I got everything right and he got everything wrong. You should have been able to see him for the true idiot he is. If you did not, then read his archives and this wonderful, wonderful site

http://smartmoneytrackerpremium-exposed.com/ and if you still want to invest with him....well you deserve everything you are about to get.

Edit
A few more people who have felt that Gary and Toby have not been spectacular.
and here are some discussions about him having a publicist ( I have my doubts that he would have publicist specially when he cannot spell it.)


  And let's end with Toby/Gary's second best call ever. 

Only off by 80% or 340% depending on how you measure it.  




Saturday, March 11, 2017

Weekend Wrap By BGINVESTOR: Part Deux

I have an interesting development that is going to keep me very occupied over the next few weeks. Definitely will be commenting a lot less considering where I will be and will not possibly have time to put up new posts that frequently. I may recycle some older posts dedicated to our friend as some of my finest work might have been missed by newer readers.  Real time updates on trades will also likely be out of the question. 

Now onto the weekend wrap. My comments are in red. 

Weekend wrap!   Bginvestor
This weekend wrap up is dedicated to JNUG.    “I love you and hate you”
GDXJ – Daily
Let’s get to the chart everyone wants to see.  ;)
Last week, I was expecting a bounce.  Did we get it?  Well, we got one today.  It came later than expected.   I plot elder impulse system plots for a reason.  It’s good to wait to see “blue” to reduce the negative momentum (red), before jumping in long. 
This is finally coming out of a DCL low.   The cycle is going to be a left or right translated which should complete the intermediate cycle.

If you’re clueless on direction, I hear Gary is giving away free advice. LOL

XJY - YEN
I will say this, I don’t like how the YEN is acting right here, right now.   RSI is warning me, but ignoring it for now.


$ULE -  Daily
However, I’ll bet a virtual cheesecake that the Euro will break out soon.  See chart.
So who’s more important?  Euro vs. Yen.  Someone smart please straighten me out.  lol
It is the yields buddy. Watch 10 year German-US Yield spread. It is beginning to compress. Euro is going to end the year over 1.20. There is no deflation in Europe. You can buy prime properties yielding 8% and finance it with a 1.5% mortgage for 8 years. So you can buy a 1,000,000 Euro property which gives you annual 80,000 Euro in income by putting in 200,000 in equity and getting a loan at 1.5% for the remaining 800,000. That means you make (80,000-12,000)=68,000 a year on 200,000 or 34%!! These kind of ridiculously low interest rates will create inflation beyond what the market currently expects and ECB will be in full hiking mode by year -end. 


CPG – Daily
Triple bottom.   Time to buy?  If support holds, yes. 
Big position for me average $11.22. Not selling even if support breaks. 

DIA – daily
I made a little 3.5% profit in SDOW.  Filled the gap and I was out like Christopher Reeve in a game of Twister. 


OIL – daily
There’s opportunity brewing in this chart.  What do you guys think??



PEI – daily
No response to support what so ever.   Nada.  I haven’t done cycle analysis; maybe it’s going into an ICL?  Or market does not like the potential interest rate hike and negative impacts to commercial real estate. 
PEI is trading at 50% the private market value of its real estate, or basically at the price real estate was at at the bottom in 2009. If in 12 months PEI is not 30% higher from this point at least once (or taken out), I will never post again. Bet Gary just orgasmed at that thought.




PPLT – daily
Last week, I said that I didn’t like the support that I drew.  I adjusted and price blew through that!  Major weakness and I stopped out earlier in the week.



SDOW – daily
Yes, I played it well.   Sold on the gap fill.   Yes, gaps do tend to get filled.
I wish I played the miners as good.  I royally screwed that up! 






TLT – daily
Buy support; sell resistance (thx, Mark).  
It’s time to settle down, and load up on bonds.   I don’t give a shit if Gary says the bond market is going to explode.   When the SM corrects, where’s the money going?
Bitcoin?  No, bonds..





UGAZ – daily
Mark, here’s one reason why I sold UGAZ.  See chart.  Another reason is that my cycle mentor is expecting another left translated daily cycle for natgas.
Still, I made a nice 24.5% profit.   As Doug would say, “blow me UGAZ”.





WTIC – daily
I’ll bet another piece of cheesecake that price hits my support line.  ;)





XLE – daily
I said that it might be a “little” early for XLE.   I don’t like how it didn’t respect the support line.  The support has meaning; it’s based on four points.
The relative rotational plot stills looks to be a “little” early.
I stopped out earlier this week, and trying to decide when to load up.  A safer bet is to wait till it breaks the down trend line since we just don’t know where the bottom is.  The weekly chart looks weaker on the stochastics.



And quite frankly, I’m worn out this week in trying to find bottoms.  Lol
You guys have a great weekend!  Let me know if you find some of this stuff interesting..